Interactive Bayesian Epidemic Modeling Platform
This web application enables users to perform Bayesian analysis of epidemic data using compartmental models. The platform combines statistical methods with high-performance computing to provide real-time parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and intervention analysis.
Mathematical Foundation
SIR model with vaccination compartments:
dS/dt = -βSI - vS + γR + wV
dI/dt = βSI - γI
dR/dt = γI - γR
dV/dt = vS - wV
dI/dt = βSI - γI
dR/dt = γI - γR
dV/dt = vS - wV
Statistical Methods
Bayesian inference using MCMC:
L(β,γ,σ) = ∏ᵢ N(yᵢ|I(tᵢ),σ²)
Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings with convergence diagnostics
Key Features
- High-performance C++ WebAssembly core
- Real-time MCMC parameter estimation
- Vaccine intervention modeling
- Waning immunity distributions
- Convergence diagnostics (R̂, ESS)
- Data export (CSV, PNG)
How to Use
- Upload epidemic data or use sample data
- Adjust model parameters and run MCMC
- Monitor convergence diagnostics
- Analyze vaccination interventions
- Export results for further analysis
Performance: 1000+ MCMC iterations per second on modern hardware.
WebAssembly provides 10-50x speedup over pure JavaScript implementations.